Madara rates a mention as a progressive 5yo with a 3-3 record on testing ground, and he went to Ireland to spank the local handicappers at the DRF. That allowance was 6lb when he won at Cheltenham two starts back and still 3lb at Leopardstown but has now been eroded entirely. It won’t stop him, as such, but he’s effectively 19lb higher than when beating In Excelsis Deo two starts back, and I don’t think it has been factored into his price. There are lots of poorly handicapped horses in this race and it’s not hard to whittle the field down to horses well enough treated who can cope with the conditions and the Cheltenham fences. Most of his best form is on a sounder surface, as when fourth in the Gold Cup two years ago; but he’s raced mainly on softer recently. Indeed, he was second to Delta Work in this race a year ago and was down the field in the two handicap chases over the track/trip late last year.
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Distinction brings solid form to the table as well and looks the most obvious danger on paper. He was only beaten half a length at Catterick and is just 1lb higher so should run his race. Tamaska has won 2 of his last 3 and looks best of the rest but another 2lb rise is going to ask more of him and he only prevailed by a neck last time at Doncaster from an exposed sort. Nat Love has won over this C&D before but was held by the fav last time. I was very pleased that I tipped three on Tuesday, including Lizzie Kelly on Coo Star Sivola at 5-1.
Wolverhampton Tips
One who would be right at home in the mud and at a massive price, too, is Favour And Fortune, second in the aforementioned Aintree G1, and a winner on heavy previously. He was just touched off in a muddling three horse race last time (heavy) with this tempo expected to be more his metier. He was thumped in the Champion Bumper here a year ago (soft), however, so just might not be good enough. The big roar that accompanies this race sometimes feel like a racecourse full of punters has been holding its collective breath for 361 days (or 362 this time around). And the traditional curtain-raiser is usually a very satisfying conclusion to the prior hiatus, pitching together a raft of exciting unexposed types all with even grander aspirations down the line.
30: Weatherbys Champion Bumper – Marlborough’s preview and tips
Aidan O’Brien’s Breeders’ Cup winner Unquestionable set the pace, with fellow Ballydoyle runner Henry Longfellow just in behind, while William Buick dropped Notable Speech out in the rear. Hannon has not been shy in making it known how highly he regards his colt, although he could have been forgiven if his confidence had been slightly dented when he was beaten by Notable Speech at Newmarket. Bit to find with Politologue on Tingle Creek form; unlikely winner. The course commentator has the opportunity to whip Cheltenham in to a frenzy right from the first race.
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RELIEF RALLY looks the one to beat after a hugely promising effort when second at Newbury a fortnight ago. That was even more commendable because it was her first start since May. Noisy Jazz is going the right way and could give the selection a race if getting cover early. In a deep contest, the likes of La Pasionaira, Queen Of Soldiers and Treasure are all capable of getting involved at generous prices. Nevertheless, Messrs. Hobbs and Meade are 0 from 30, three places, which is hard to overlook.
Trainers
They are 0 from 22, though then nine-year-old Whisper nearly benefited from Might Bite’s errant course up the hill last year in the RSA Chase. It is worth noting that nine of those 22 were priced at 7/1 or shorter. That would have netted 36 winners from 180 runners (20% strike rate, 69% race win strike rate) and a level stakes profit of 46.48 points at Starting Price. Moreover, the approach was profitable in eight of the ten years, exceptions being 2016 and 2009.
‘His season starts here’ – 85/1 Gordon Elliott Down Royal accumulator on Friday
In the five previous renewals, the race went more in keeping with the form already in the book as 5/1 Duc Des Genievres was the only one of the quintet of Arkle winners between 2015 and 2019 to score at odds against. The four odds-on scorers, in reverse chronological order Footpad, Altior, Douvan and Un De Sceaux, scored by, respectively, 14 lengths, six lengths, seven lengths and six lengths. APPLE AWAY is seemingly held on Reynoldstown form, but I thought she was better than the bare result at Ascot, jumping really well on the whole and trying to battle back when getting squeezed out at the final fence. She was picking up again at the line, and appeals to me as the sort to relish a thorough test of stamina.
Southwell (AW) Tips
It has been the obvious race for him since last year and we’ve just had to creep there. The owners have been very good and said if that is what you want to do then go for it. “Luke got it right and there was enough room for him to keep pushing and get where we wanted. It was one of those races where I can’t remember one going so well since Alborada got the pacemaker and High-Rise didn’t (in the 1999 Champion Stakes). “I was very concerned about the draw, I had a thoroughly bad day when I found out his position.
- The Glancing Queen will no doubt be well fancied for the feature race, but she hasn’t been the soundest jumper over hurdles and is worth opposing on her chase debut.
- Of course, he’s priced as though he has little chance and that may be how it transpires.
- The horse’s trainer and the jockey at the time of winning the Ayr Gold Cup are also displayed, along with the starting price at which the horse was sent off.
- No, if I was having a swipe right now, it might be Not So Sleepy without Honeysuckle at 33/1+ each way.
- In the Coral Cup, Fixe Le Kap can run a big race at a big price.
- She seems better going left-handed and with just a little ease in the ground, conditions she’ll get here.
- It’s possible that Luccia could be sent on in a bid to force a stronger pace, she herself having made all in the race when her barn mate Iberico flopped; but that’s not her normal run style.
- The big roar that accompanies this race sometimes feel like a racecourse full of punters has been holding its collective breath for 361 days (or 362 this time around).
With nine fences to go
But he’s no bargain, especially if his jockey – presumably Rachael Blackmore though she has another option – allows others a head start. O’Faolains Boy set a fair but not searing tempo, aided and abetted by Smad Place, in 2016, the beneficiary of which was the handily-ridden Don Cossack. And in 2015, Coneygree made every yard under an inspired ride from Nico de Boinville. De Boinville’s measurement of pace there was brilliant, saving enough to repel a brace of Irish challengers up the hill to the line. In 2018, Native River won from Might Bite, the pair engaging in a ding-dong skirmish from flag fall; in theory, both should have wilted and been passed. This was definitely not a winner I could have found as it looked on paper beforehand that they’d have at it exactly as they did, an approach in this sort of cauldron which typically spells c-u-r-t-a-i-n-s.
Horse racing tips: Cheltenham, Doncaster, Newbury – Saturday October 26
Advised StakesTo see performance to the tipster’s recommended stakes, check the «Advised Stakes» checkbox. Our Bet Slip allows you to build up your selections before you begin placing multiple bets with your favourite bookmakers. Click the +BET button to add your selections and then, when you’re ready, hit ‘Bet Now’ to go to your chosen bookmaker’s site and place your bets. Belbek wins the Group 1 Qatar Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere at ParisLongchamp. Granary at Hunt Court, CheltenhamCosy and chic, the Granary at Hunt Court offers an idyllic escape. Surrounded by peaceful farmland and scenery populated by abundant wildlife, this special spot makes for the ideal place to switch off and relax after a day discovering the chronicles of Cheltenham Festival.
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Joes Edge defied a 114 day absence in 2007 though such extended layoffs are exceptional when it comes to Ultima winners. High Definition is obviously a very high class ex-flat horse; he was favourite for the Dante as a three-year-old and ran second in the Group 1 Tattersalls Gold Cup and third in the Group 1 Coronation Cup last year. The problem is that, as obviously and unsurprisingly fast as he has been, he jumps like, well, like a Dante favourite. I think he’s very likely to be found out in a race as hot as this, especially with other pace players from the get go. Jpr One has the best domestic form but not by much; he also has a trainer in form and can handle conditions.
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- We did all the donkey work, it was tremendous really and I’m delighted for the horse and delighted for Callum (Rodriguez) and delighted for these guys who have put their money into it – it’s great to have syndicates like this.
- I’m not keen on backing Appreciate It at around 6/4 in the ‘without’ market either, nor the untested in Grade 1 or on fast ground Teahupoo, or any of his five-year-old contemporaries.
- These seasoned experts analyse horse form, course record, jockeys and trainer form, and offer a well-rounded view of the race.
- BetTrader from RacingTraders.co.uk was the 1st application for Betfair & introduced the ladder UI.
- Even allowing for the further progression that leap implies, he still has something like a stone to find with Ballyburn.
- High Definition is obviously a very high class ex-flat horse; he was favourite for the Dante as a three-year-old and ran second in the Group 1 Tattersalls Gold Cup and third in the Group 1 Coronation Cup last year.
- Noel Meade has an infamous record at the Festival and, while he’s 0 from 13 in this section of races, his Road To Riches was third in both the 2015 Gold Cup and the 2016 Ryanair Chase.
As a consequence, I went fishing for a wager in a different pond, the ‘without the favourite’ market. She’s now as big as 7/1 in that market, and in all honesty I’ve cooled on her prospects of running second to Honeysuckle (and therefore winning that bet) a little, though she still has grand claims of being in the first four. And Matt Tombs in his excellent matchbook content added that five of the 14 runners to start with a chase rating 7lb+ lower than their hurdle mark managed to win in the last 13 renewals.
Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: Sat 26th Feb 2022
In 2008, Fiveforthree bridged that class chasm as a 7/1 chance in the Ballymore – now Gallagher – i.e. this race. And in 2022, The Nice Guy did likewise at 18/1 in the Spuds race. Thirty others tried and failed, though you’d have got paid out on at least six of them for a place. In other words, market wise, they’ve probably fared no worse than any other Willie cohort; which is to say losing a little bit over time and the real longshots don’t win. Best of the British could be Handstands, for Ben Pauling and former Gold Cup sponsor Tim Radford. He is an unbeaten domestic, defending a point and three hurdle scores, the most recent of which was in the Listed Sidney Banks at Huntingdon, where he beat the previous Grade 1 winner and subsequent Grade 2 second, Jango Baie.
- The more I look at the Supreme, the more I feel like Mighty Potter should get a lovely lead into the business end and will get the end-to-end gallop that suits him best.
- Luke Harvey, who is the perfect height to get a close view of these things, tells me that Altior’s foot problem can be skipped over, and it is fantastic news that we will see that horse go head-to-head with Douvan.
- HUNTERS YARN is the clear pick for the handler, arriving for this handicap debut after an effortless Listed Hurdle success at Navan last month.
- Firefox has also led in two of his last three, likewise Tellherthename.
- Some of Cheltenham’s greatest scenes have been provided by the likes of Istabraq, Like A Butterfly and Danoli, and our friends from across the water are throwing the kitchen sink behind Samcro.
- Evaluating the track record of tipsters at prestigious events like Royal Ascot can provide insights into their expertise and reliability.
- Expert insights can offer valuable perspectives on a horse’s form, recent performances, and potential for success.
- Five of the last 13 winners had run in the Ultima Handicap the previous year.
In another life his jockey Nico de Boinville might have been one of those soldiers who is unexceptional in peacetime but extraordinarily cool under fire. After Douvan had crashed out at the last ditch, while leading, there were five horses in with a chance turning in. High quality Saturday with the second day at Wetherby who feature a pair of Grade Two races plus a Listed.
Our Scout and Trader have picked out the following bets for Race 6 👇🏼
Strike rates are below what is the 14/1+ norm for all National Hunt races and losses have been significant. Indeed, Irish runners have outperformed UK runners in terms of win strike rate in the last ten festivals starting from 2013 as the graph below neatly illustrates. These figures are skewed inasmuch as the last five years have seen a big increase in the number of Irish horses travelling across. However, the win strike rate for Irish runners in the five years from 2008 to 2012 was 6.8%, whereas in the past five years (2018 to 2022) it has been 9.7%.
Better yet, they may assist in whittling fields to more manageable numbers with a view to poring over the form on the remaining runners. Ignoring the highly unpredictable handicap chase segment, there are some consistent negative factors worth keeping in mind throughout Cheltenham Festival week. 506 of the 964 starters in all-age Cheltenham Festival handicap hurdles since 2008 have been sent off at greater than 20/1. It may be safe to exclude fillies and mares in all age Cheltenham Festival handicap hurdles. (Incidentally, fillies have an excellent record in the Fred Winter).
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If you still think taking 7/2 is acceptable when you can get 4/1, you’re doing it wrong. The course has provided an early hunting ground for a number of national hunt legends. Multiple Grand National winners have scored at Bangor, while Gold Cup winning trio Norton’s Coin, Mr Mulligan and Denman all tasted success there before their finest hour. None of the runners with racecourse experience leap off the page, so it may be worth chancing SAINT SEGAL. His dam was a very talented hurdler in France and his half-sister has also won over timber this season, so there is hope that he could be above average.
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- In fact, overall, 17 of Henderson’s 32 runners in the race finished in the first three – take that, Willie!
- He had his warm up for this when cantering home in a two-runner Limited Handicap at Newcastle, against a rival receiving 19lb, and I think he has every chance of outrunning his odds here.
- And then, when it was all going so well, along came that King George; never going the pace there and succumbing to a couple of – these days – uncharacteristic blunders and pulling up.
- He’s unbeaten in a point, a bumper, and three hurdle races and, though untested in Graded company, he’s kicked to the kerb everything he’s faced hitherto.
- The micro-systems above will provide plenty of action for those who like a mechanical approach.
Clicking on the trainer’s name reveals today’s runner(s), and clicking the little up arrow to the left hand side displays inline the relevant past performances – here we can see that one of the pair won and the other was third. HERMES BOY chased home subsequent Cheltenham winner I Like To Move It when finishing 2nd at Worcester 5 weeks ago. It is also worth noting that he ran well on debut over this Course and Distance on his bumper debut last season and if he can build on his debut over timber, he should win this race that looks to lack any real depth.
For a horse with a lot of placed efforts to his name, he kept going strongly to win by three and a quarter lengths from the Wathnan Racing-owned duo of Haunted Dream and Torito. “He’s taking on the older horses, the best sprinters in the world, and he’s held his own against them. He’s only going to improve on that as he gets older, I’m very pleased with the run.
He is now 14lb higher in the handicap, but his Cheltenham win two starts ago gives him prospects here as the second top weight. Day one of the Newbury Greatwood meeting with tomorrow’s Greatwood Gold Cup being the highlight. The going is Soft – Good to Soft in places on the chase course. The ground may ease again slightly with rain forecast before racing commences at 2.10.
Yggdrasil is likely to be a popular choice given his unexposed profile and low weight, but he will have his work cut out against some seasoned campaigners and so it may be worth chancing the top weight, TIQUER. He is a 13-year-old and has had his issues, but with only 22 career starts, he has very few miles on the clock. He made a perfectly reasonable comeback at Newton Abbot 3 weeks ago when finishing third to Arian, beaten just 6-lengths and he now races in Class 4 for the first time in almost 5 years. Daryl Jacob has been booked for the ride and he makes some decent place appeal. Experience has counted for a lot in recent times, with nine of the past ten winners having four-plus seasonal runs and four-plus chase starts.
Gordon also has Braeside, whose two career wins have come on heavy ground, as Profiler handily highlights. He’s slow enough for the old four-miler but probably not quick enough for this classier, shorter iteration of the race. This is a really tricky race with if’s and but’s about most of them. In the absence of a reliable option, I’ll take a chance on Heaven Help Us being trained for the day in what seem to be her favoured conditions.
El Fabiolo «occasionally quite clumsy», but agree the Irish Arkle is the best form on show so far. But this race is likely to be the best form by season end. Saint Roi is interesting – «jockey admitted falling off» last time. Won’t get involved in any pacey business on the front end and so is playable e/w at the prices.
Last year’s runner-up Popmaster is a big price and United Approach can reward each-way backers. Five-time Irish champion Colin Keane takes the ride and that is a huge plus. Last year’s impressive winner Inspiral is a class act but it’s hard to have any confidence in her given she has blown the start on her last three runs.
14/1 looks a very playable each way proposition, with the NRNB proviso. It is also true that RP has been dishing up in deep ground and it remains to be seen how he handles quicker terrain. For all of those reservations, he has been ultra-impressive visually, and his stamina combined with fluent jumping makes him a natural for a staying test like this. There are other credible contenders in the field, not least Galvin, but if Royale Pagaille lines up here rather than his other entries, he’ll take some beating.
But, on balance, I’ll stick with what I have and cheer the champ to repeat and remain unbeaten. Ten of the 15 years would have yielded a profit, and a very good one in nine of those ten positive renewals. Three years made small Bolts Up Daily losses, two years quite big losses. In this article I will attempt to break down the facts and figures going back as far as 2008. This gives us 15 years’ worth of data to crunch, which is plenty to get our teeth into.